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While Republicans are raving about ‘stop the steal’ and invading the Capitol building as they do, there are some details that are getting overlooked. Republicans actually far outperformed in the election compared to the polling. In fact they did so to a wildly improbably degree. In 27 House races marked by political experts as ‘toss up’ ie. roughly 50–50 or too close to call, Republicans won every single one. Every single one.
That’s an incredibly strong claim so let me give you the quote from the source, a CNN article on 11/17/2020
“As David Wasserman, the House editor at the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan campaign tip sheet, noted on Twitter on Monday: It’s been almost two weeks since Election Day, and Democrats still haven’t won a *single one* of the 27 House races in @CookPolitical’s Toss Up column.”” from CNN 11/17/2020
Okay but what does that mean? How unlikely is it that Republicans, a party dealing with Donald Trump’s negative coattails, in an election they loudly claim was rigged against them by fake ballots etc. could win 27 of 27 toss up elections. Well assuming a 50/50 probability inherent in the toss up nomenclature, it would be a 1 in 134,217,728 chance. A one in 134 million probability. How unlikely is that? Well that is roughly the same chances as dying while playing Scrabble.
